Same Degree, Different Debt: What Adult Completers Should Know Before Borrowing

Introduction: Same Degree, Very Different Debt

Why can two people who finish the same degree leave owing tens of thousands of dollars more than the other? The gap is rarely the major alone.

A 2026 HEA Group study found computer science graduates at UT Austin earned an average of $155,168 four years after graduation, while East Asian languages, literatures and linguistics, the lowest-paid major listed, trailed by about $116,713. For adult learners finishing or switching degrees after years away, that spread flows directly into monthly payment pressure.

Program-level earnings now feed a federal loan eligibility test that took effect July 1, 2026, so the borrowing risk is set before the first payment comes due.

Why Two Graduates With the Same Degree Can Owe Very Different Amounts

When two adults complete the same degree, the diploma can look identical while their loan balances look nothing alike. The gap usually traces back to ordinary enrollment choices and household circumstances, not just the major.

Where the Gap Comes From

• Institution and sticker price: In-state public, out-of-state public, and private nonprofit programs start from different published prices, and private loan terms can widen that spread further.
• Net price after gift aid: Scholarships and grants reduce what a learner actually pays, so two people in the same program can face very different amounts even when tuition is identical.
• Living costs: Room, board, transportation, and personal expenses are part of the cost of attendance, but they shift with the learner's housing, commute, and family situation.
• Time to degree: Repeating courses, changing majors, or enrolling part time adds terms, and each added term often means another loan disbursement.
• Prior debt carried in: Adult completers frequently bring balances from earlier college attempts, and those older loans keep accruing interest during the new program.

One Clear Example: Cost of Attendance vs. Net Price

A program may list a cost of attendance of $30,000 for tuition, fees, housing, food, books, and travel. If one learner receives a $10,000 grant, the net price is $20,000. A second learner with no grant and a higher-cost apartment could owe far more for the same courses. Family support and work hours also vary, so identical majors on the same campus can still end in different debt.

What Happens to Loan Balances After You Finish

Four years after leaving school, bachelor's degree completers in the 2015-16 cohort still owed about 78% of what they originally borrowed, according to NCES Fast Facts. In other words, the balance shrinks, but usually slowly. A separate Education Data Initiative calculation shows university graduates retaining roughly 91.7% of their original balance one year after leaving and 78.2% four years after. That is a 13.5 percentage point decline, not a clean payoff. Borrowers who expect a fast drop often find the first year barely moves because interest and low early payments consume much of the payment.

Why the Balance Can Stay Flat Even While You Pay

Interest is the main reason. Interest accrues on the outstanding principal, and if you are in a period where payments are low or paused, the unpaid interest can capitalize. Capitalization adds that interest to your principal, so future interest is calculated on a larger amount. You can make regular payments and still see little movement. On some federal income-driven plans, the payment can be lower than the monthly interest charge, so the balance may rise even while you are in repayment.

Completers vs. Noncompleters

Completers have a credential that can support repayment. Noncompleters borrowed more per credit in federal data and may not receive the same earnings boost, so their balances can stay elevated longer or decline more slowly. Yet even for completers, timing varies by loan type. That is one reason the time-to-degree path matters as much as the degree name.

What the Averages Show

For bachelor's completers in the 2015-16 cohort, NCES reports average cumulative federal borrowing of $45,300 as of 2020. Education Data Initiative puts average debt for the Class of 2025 at $39,550. The $45,300 figure includes federal borrowing only, so borrowers with private loans may owe more. Federal and private loans handle interest, deferment, and repayment differently; the net price and loan package comparison later addresses those differences.

Earnings by Major: What the HEA Group Study Shows and Where It Falls Short

The same degree can create very different repayment risk depending on the program a student completes. A 2026 HEA Group analysis reported by The Daily Texan found wide earnings gaps about four years after graduation: UT computer science graduates with federal aid averaged $155,168, radio-television-film majors averaged $52,860, and College of Natural Sciences graduates averaged $85,429. The gap between the highest and lowest paid federal-aid recipients in the study exceeded $115,000, making loan affordability strongly program dependent.

Why the Spread Matters for Borrowers

A graduate leaving a higher-earning program has more income to cover a fixed monthly payment. A borrower in a lower-earning field may face the same loan balance on a much smaller paycheck, which is the central risk adult completers should weigh before re-enrolling.

The Four-Year Snapshot Has Limits

The figures are not destiny. UT economics professor Stephen Trejo told The Daily Texan that average earnings four years after graduation may not reflect variation in job types or delayed income growth by major, and that wage differences have been widening for about 40 years alongside the information technology revolution. The data also covers only federal-aid recipients in the 2017-18 and 2018-19 graduation cohorts, so graduates without federal aid and later cohorts are not represented.⁴ Selection effects and non-monetary job benefits remain outside the picture.

A Broader Benchmark

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's yearly earnings-by-major data offers a more representative view. In the latest 2026:Q2 release, computer science majors show median early-career earnings of $87,000 and mid-career earnings of $120,000. Nursing majors report $70,000 early and $87,000 mid-career, while fine arts majors report $45,000 early and $72,000 mid-career. Use the HEA figures as a program-specific starting point and the New York Fed data as a longer-horizon check.

The New Federal Earnings Test: What It Means for Undergraduate Loan Eligibility

Federal student loan eligibility is now tied to how much a program's graduates earn, not simply whether an institution is accredited. The accountability rule that took effect July 1, 2026 compares median earnings for graduates of each undergraduate program with the median earnings of working adults ages 25 to 34 who hold only a high school diploma or equivalent and are not enrolled in further education. When at least half of an institution's enrollment is in the relevant undergraduate category, the comparison may be state-specific; otherwise it uses a national benchmark from the American Community Survey.¹

What the Rule Covers

The test applies at the program-of-study level to Title IV-eligible undergraduate certificates, associate degrees, and bachelor's degrees. Graduate and professional programs use a different benchmark based on bachelor's degree holders in the same age group. A program that fails in two of three consecutive years is labeled a low-earning outcome program and loses Direct Loan eligibility for students in it. Three consecutive years can lead to broader Title IV consequences.

What Adult Learners Should Check

Adult completers should treat program choice as a borrowing risk. Before re-enrolling, ask whether the program currently passes the earnings test and request the school's most recent program-level earnings disclosure. The Department of Education and College Scorecard publish program outcomes, and a school should be able to explain a flagged program's status. Because the test uses median earnings, some graduates may earn above the benchmark while a program still fails, so individual salary averages are not a reliable proxy.

Timing and Implementation

While the rule took effect July 1, 2026, full application may be phased. Narrower Direct Loan agreement provisions take effect August 31, 2026, and full effect may land as late as July 1, 2027.² Confirm the current status directly with the financial aid office before committing to a program.

Monthly Payments and Debt-to-Income Ratios by Degree Level and Major

Undergraduate federal Direct Loans first disbursed between July 1, 2026, and June 30, 2027, carry a fixed 6.52% interest rate. Graduate unsubsidized loans carry 8.07%, and Direct PLUS loans carry 9.07%.

The estimates below assume a 10-year standard repayment plan with 120 monthly payments and monthly compounding. At 6.52%, every $1,000 borrowed costs about $11.36 a month. At 8.07%, the factor is about $12.22 per $1,000, and at 9.07%, about $12.70 per $1,000. These are the rates for loans first disbursed in the 2026-2027 federal aid year, not the statutory maximums.

How the Same Payment Hits Different Incomes

A $24,200 bachelor's balance at 6.52% produces a standard payment of roughly $275 a month. That same payment affects a high-earning and a low-earning graduate very differently. Using average salary figures from the 2026 HEA Group study, UT computer science graduates who received federal aid earned about $155,168, while radio-television-film graduates earned about $52,860. A $275 monthly payment equals about 2.1% of the computer science graduate's gross monthly income, but about 6.2% of the radio-television-film graduate's income.

A Simple Payment-to-Income Check

Many financial aid advisers use a 10% of gross monthly income cap as a rough starting point. To apply it, divide your estimated monthly payment by your expected monthly gross income. If the result is above 0.10, the loan payment may be stretched; if it is under 0.05, the payment is comparatively light. The same dollar payment can be comfortable for one major and tight for another.

What These Numbers Do Not Capture

These are illustrative estimates, not forecasts. The 6.52% undergraduate rate applies outside subsidized periods; a Direct Subsidized Loan can have a 0% rate during eligible in-school, grace, or deferment periods. Your actual balance, repayment term, and income will vary. Graduates in lower-paying fields often choose income-driven plans, which lower the current payment but extend the repayment term and can change the long-run cost.

Time to Degree, Part-Time Enrollment, and Transfer Credits: How Your Path Changes Total Borrowing

The path to a degree shapes total borrowing as much as the major does. Every extra semester layers on another term of tuition, fees, and living costs while interest accrues on existing balances. Longer timelines also delay the earnings bump that helps borrowers pay down debt.

Part-Time Enrollment: Lower Bills per Term, Longer Exposure

Part-time enrollment can keep monthly costs manageable and allow adults to keep working, but the tradeoff is a much longer clock. 2026 National Student Clearinghouse data put the median time to a bachelor's degree at 11.9 years for predominantly part-time students, compared with 3.7 years for bachelor's completers who did not transfer. Associate degrees took 6.7 years and certificates 7.7 years for the same group. The longer a student is enrolled, the more terms of tuition and living expenses accumulate, and reduced institutional aid can be a risk.

Transfer Credits: The Biggest Lever

For adult completers, transfer credit is often the single largest lever on total cost and borrowing. Community college transfers took a median 5.7 years to a bachelor's degree, and 56.4 percent had a stopout, versus 23.6 percent for non-transfers. Transfer students lose an average of 9 to 10.6 credits, with some losing up to 25, according to 2026 estimates.¹ That lost credit can add up to $13,081 in extra cost at a public four-year school and $26,396 at a private one, translating to an estimated $2,747 to $5,543 in added borrowing after aid. Transfer students also reported unmanageable debt at 31 percent, compared with 18 percent of non-transfers.

Stop-Outs and Old Balances Carry Forward

Adults who stop out often carry prior federal borrowing into their return. About one-third of the estimated 36 million adults with some college credit but no degree reported student debt as of 2023. Federal aid limits count outstanding loans, so old balances can reduce remaining eligibility. Before committing, request a written credit evaluation so you know exactly which credits will count toward the major and which will not.

Comparing Net Price and Loan Packages: Federal vs. Private Loans

Start by subtracting grants and scholarships from total cost to find net price; the remaining gap is what you may need to borrow. Exhaust grants and federal loans before considering private loans. Federal loans have fixed rates, income-driven repayment, and published cohort default data, while private loans often carry higher average balances and fewer standardized safety nets.

Questions to Ask Financial Aid Before Re-Enrolling

• What is my net price per year after grants and scholarships?Ask for the net price after gift aid, and which grants renew.
• Do my old federal loans affect my remaining eligibility, and am I near any lifetime limit?Request current federal loan totals and remaining aggregate eligibility.
• Which credits will transfer, and what is my realistic time to degree?Get a written transfer credit evaluation and a degree plan with part-time pacing.
• Does this program pass the federal earnings test, and what do its graduates earn?Ask for recent graduate earnings for the specific program, not just the college average.
• What happens to aid if I go part-time or stop out?Confirm whether grants scale down and how a leave affects future federal loans.
• Is any part of this package a private loan?Identify private loan or parent loan lines, and ask about interest rates and repayment.

Repayment Basics for Adult Completers: Plans, Deferment, and Income-Driven Options

Two borrowers with identical balances can sit on opposite sides of the July 1, 2026 disbursement line, and that date determines which repayment plans they may use. For Direct Loans first disbursed on or after that date, the fixed option is the Tiered Standard Plan, a 10-year plan; borrowers who do not choose are placed there.¹ The income-driven option is the new Repayment Assistance Plan, or RAP, which bases payments on income and family size. Income-driven plans can lower monthly payments, but stretching repayment may add total interest over time. Older income-driven formulas and forgiveness periods do not transfer to RAP automatically.

Plans for Pre-2026 Loans

Borrowers whose eligible loans predate July 1, 2026 keep the fixed Standard, Graduated, and Extended options when they qualify. Standard and Graduated generally run 10 years, with Graduated payments rising every two years; Extended can reach 25 years, generally for more than $30,000 in qualifying outstanding Direct or FFEL debt. Income-Based Repayment remains available for eligible older loans. New borrowers on or after July 1, 2014 typically use 10 percent of discretionary income over 20 years; other IBR borrowers use 15 percent over 25 years. A post-2026 disbursement, including consolidation, removes IBR, ICR, and PAYE access for those Direct Loans.

Deferment, Forbearance, and Older Plans

Deferment and forbearance pause payments in limited situations, but interest may continue to accrue and can raise the balance. SAVE is no longer available after a court order took effect March 10, 2026, so borrowers previously on SAVE should choose another plan through their servicer. Adult completers with existing balances may be on older plans; check your servicer before assuming current rules apply. Because rules changed recently, use StudentAid.gov for current terms rather than relying on any summary.